Less a Landslide than Implosion and Fragmentation

Contrary to many comments it’s not so much a Labour landslide (e.g. The Guardian headline on 5 July: “Labour landslide”) but more an implosion of the Conservative vote combined with fragmentation of parties. Thus, Labour won 63% of all seats i.e. almost double their 34% of the vote while turnout was modest at 60%, in fact down nearly 7% on 2019.Conversely the Conservative vote share at 24% exceeded their share of seats (19%) by 5% yet it almost halved from 43% of the vote in 2019 to 24% this year.

Our key observations plus some questions arising from the UK EU Referendum and US Presidential election

McDougall Trust operates in an environment in which short-term, sometimes frenzied, political developments sometimes disguise, but can also reflect, significant long-term changes. The Trust attempts to identify those which matter most to its central concern with public understanding of the way elections work and contribute to democracy.

Book Review by Ron Johnston: Paul Whiteley, Harold D. Clarke, David Sanders and Marianne C. Stewart, Affluence, Austerity and Electoral Change in Britain

Book Review: Anthony F. Heath, Stephen D. Fisher, Gemma Rosenblatt, David Sanders and Maria Sobolewska, The Political Integration of Ethnic Minorities in Britain